Bitcoin’s Path to a New All-Time High: What to Expect in Q4 2024
Despite the ongoing economic challenges, Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for a potential new all-time high (ATH), fueled by the historically favorable trends of Q4.
Is Bitcoin Ready to Break Records?
On October 28, Bitcoin made headlines by surpassing the $71,000 mark, igniting speculation about whether it could eclipse its previous peak of $73,737 set back in March. While BTC has flirted with the $70K level several times since then, it has yet to establish a new record.
A recent analysis from Bitfinex suggests that Bitcoin might be on track for an ATH shortly after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The cryptocurrency is often viewed as a “Trump trade,” showing significant correlation with Donald Trump’s electoral prospects.
For instance, following a brief 6% dip last week, BTC quickly recovered its losses as Trump’s chances of winning increased on Polymarket—a decentralized prediction market platform. As it stands now, Trump holds a commanding lead with a 66.1% probability of victory compared to Democratic contender Kamala Harris at 33.9%. However, public opinion polls indicate that this race remains tightly contested and unpredictable.
The prospect of another Trump presidency is stirring activity in the options market as well. According to Bitfinex’s report, while short-term volatility may spike leading up to Election Day on November 8th—when implied volatility could reach daily highs of around 100—the long-term outlook for BTC remains bullish:
“Options expiring around key election dates are seeing higher premiums due to anticipated turbulence; however, we maintain confidence in long-term price growth.”
It’s noteworthy that just last month BTC dipped down to approximately $52,756 but staged an impressive rally throughout October—gaining nearly 30% and reinforcing optimism surrounding what some are calling “Uptober.”
Favorable Trends Ahead
The report highlights that Bitcoin stands ready to capitalize on what is traditionally known as “favorable Q4 seasonality.” Historically speaking during halving years like this one—Q4 has yielded an average quarterly return of about 31.34% for BTC.
Moreover, there’s been notable activity surrounding call options set to expire on December 27th—particularly those pegged at an ambitious strike price of $80K—which further supports bullish sentiment heading into Q4:
“As open interest in options reaches unprecedented levels ahead of year-end expirations,” states Bitfinex’s analysis,”the market seems geared up for potential post-election momentum that could push Bitcoin past its previous ATH.”
In related news earlier this month from K33 Research—a crypto analytics firm—it was noted that recent positive developments regarding FTX have also contributed positively towards bolstering Bitcoin’s optimistic narrative for Q4.
At present writing time (with BTC trading at approximately $71,110, reflecting a 3.1% increase over the past day), it’s just shy by about 3.5% from its all-time high established earlier this year. Whether or not Bitcoin can sustain this upward trajectory through the remainder of Q4 or face another setback remains uncertain—but one thing is clear: all eyes will be glued on both market movements and political developments alike.
As we approach pivotal moments both politically and economically within these next few months—the stage is set not only for potential record-breaking prices but also heightened volatility across markets globally! Buckle up; it’s going to be quite an interesting ride!
