Tonight, Joe Biden is likely to contend that Donald Trump’s policies will aggravate inflation. Whether this argument sways voters remains uncertain.
The issue of “Trumpflation” has been gaining attention, mainly in academic and political discussions. Biden is expected to bring this up in their debate in Atlanta, arguing that Trump’s proposals—tariffs, tax cuts, and strict immigration policies—could increase inflation.
A letter from 16 Nobel laureates backs this claim, warning that Trump’s policies could slow economic growth and reignite inflation if put into action.
Biden’s campaign quickly used this to their advantage, with spokesperson James Singer stating, “In Trump’s America, the wealthy benefit while working Americans suffer.”
Convincing the electorate about inflation remains difficult for Biden, but recent polls show slight gains. A Fox News poll after Trump’s criminal conviction showed Biden leading in a hypothetical matchup for the first time since last October, with a notable improvement in his inflation approval rating to 37%.
Trump, however, plans to criticize Biden on inflation during tonight’s debate. Trump’s team dismisses “Trumpflation” concerns, emphasizing that inflation remained low during his term despite his tariff and tax policies.
Yet, studies such as a Moody’s Analytics report and a Peterson Institute analysis suggest Trump’s policies could result in higher inflation and increased costs for American families.
Biden’s goal tonight may be to highlight the inflation risks of Trump’s policies rather than outperform Trump on the issue. Analysts at Evercore ISI note that Biden could make progress by portraying Trump’s ideas as inflationary, although the debate might focus more on leadership qualities.
Inflation remains a significant challenge for Biden, with a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll showing only 29% approval on inflation and Trump leading by 16 points on the issue. In the poll, 49% of respondents believed Trump would manage inflation better as president, compared to 33% for Biden. Meanwhile, 18% of voters remained undecided.
