After President Joe Biden’s debate performance last Thursday raised doubts about his fitness for a second term, stock market observers quickly began speculating on potential replacements. Leading the list is Vice President Kamala Harris, but Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also stands out as a business-friendly option.
The names suggested by financial analysts mirror those circulating in political circles, though there are notable differences reflecting the Biden administration’s varying ties to corporate America. In general, business leaders desire stability and a successor who won’t disrupt markets this year or in the future.
Despite Biden and his allies’ firm assertions that he plans to continue his campaign, his hesitant debate performance has fueled ongoing speculation. “There isn’t an obvious replacement,” said Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s U.S. director, on Yahoo Finance Live, highlighting that any candidate could alienate significant segments of the Democratic base.
Following the debate, Biden delivered several forceful speeches and received supportive statements from figures like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, which have somewhat alleviated concerns. At Camp David for a planned family visit, Biden is reportedly discussing his campaign’s next steps.
Outreach to CEOs
Kamala Harris is prominently mentioned by both political and financial experts. As Vice President, she holds a strong position with broad support from the Democratic coalition and has been actively engaging with CEOs. Recently, she met with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and other business leaders, including those from Mastercard and Microsoft.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also appears frequently on lists. She has been praised for her efforts with key economic initiatives like the 2022 CHIPs and Science Act and her engagement with the business community. However, some critics within the Democratic base, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, have raised concerns about her perceived friendliness toward business.
Raimondo’s recognition among the general public remains low, with a recent poll showing that 85% of Americans have no opinion of her, making her one of the least well-known members of Biden’s cabinet. Additionally, her limited popularity and lack of national testing pose challenges.
Other Names and Biden’s Pledge
Other frequently mentioned potential replacements include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker. Newsom’s contentious budget debate in California could impact his chances.
Despite the speculation, Biden has repeatedly pledged to stay in the race. His political allies and family continue to defend his debate performance, attributing any issues to external factors.
Biden’s discussions at Camp David this weekend, according to a New York Times report, involve family members urging him to continue his campaign. As Harris noted on CNN post-debate, Biden had a “slow start” but finished strong.
